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Minutes after he was convicted of possessing child sexual abuse materials (CSAM), Josh Duggar was cuffed hauled off to jail in front of his horrified family.

While he’ll eventually be relocated to a federal prison, Josh has spent the past two months in solitary confinement in a county facility near Fayetteville, Arkansas.

On Tuesday, Josh’s sentencing hearing was scheduled for April 5.

Needless to say, these are tense times for the 33-year-old and the family members who continue to support him.

Josh Duggar is the Worst
Photo via Instagram

Based on federal sentencing guidelines, Josh is facing 20 years behind bars.

But despite his numerous past sex scandals, he is technically a first offender, so it seems unlikely that Judge Timothy L. Brooks will throw the book at him.

Fortunately, even if the court takes mercy on Josh, he can’t serve less than five years in prison.

Joshua Duggar Picture
Photo via Instagram

There are several factors that will be considered by the judge, most of which having to do with the severity and nature of Josh’s crimes, which were already determined during his trial.

But at the sentencing hearing, Judge Brooks might listen to statements from Josh’s victims, as well as Josh himself.

And as legal analyst and attorney Emily D. Baker explains to The Ashley’s Reality Roundup, these statements can come from anyone who was victimized by Josh, not just those who were affected by his most recent crimes.

Josh Duggar from a Long Time Ago

“The Victim Impact Statement would be a victim and can be related to his previous acts, since it is very unlikely it would be from someone depicted in [the CSAM] he possessed,” Baker told The Ashley’s Reality Roundup.

“Since his past acts came up at trial that would be my best guess at what type of victim impact statement is included.”

Josh molested four of his sisters while he was still in his teens, and while it seems unlikely that any of them will take the stand against him, it’s not impossible.

Josh Duggar's Post-Conviction Mug Shot
Photo via NBC

After all, Jill Duggar cut ties with her parents years ago and has made it clear that she believes Josh is guilty of the crimes he was convicted of.

But would she publicly burn that bridge by delivering a Victim Impact Statement? 

We wouldn’t bet on it.

Josh Duggar and Anna Duggar
Photo via Instagram

Baker adds that Josh cannot be sentenced on both of the chatges for which he was convicted, possessing and receiving CSAM.

And so, he’ll be sentenced for receiving, which guarantees a minimum of five years behind bars.

“The receiving charges carries a five-year minimum mandatory sentence,” she said.

Anna Duggar and Josh Duggar Throwback Picture
Photo via TLC

“Possessing [CSAM] does not have a mandatory minimum and is a lesser crime," Baker continued.

“But because he was convicted of the possessing charge, there’s that five-year minimum, so he has to go to prison for at least five years and up to 20."

So yeah, the rumors that Josh might wind up serving 40 years behind bars were always inaccurate.

Josh Duggar, Wife Photo
Photo via Instagram

But at least there’s a mandatory minimum in this case.

“He was never eligible to be sentenced on both [charges],” Baker stated.

“It was always 20 years max, depending on which [charge] he was convicted of. They could not be added together [so that it’s 20 years per charge]," she continued.

Josh Duggar is a Bad Dad
Photo via Instagram

"The top max sentence always has to be 20 years. If he had been convicted of possessing [CSAM] only, there’s no mandatory minimum sentence, so legally, a judge could have sentenced him to no prison time and only probation/parole," Baker explained.

“But because he was convicted of the possessing charge, there’s that five-year minimum, so he has to go to prison for at least five years and up to 20."

Obviously, the idea of Josh getting sentenced to a mere five years is nauseating.

Josh Duggar Looks Happy
Photo via Instagram/abc

But as Baker points out, the fact that he’s being sentenced in federal court means that he he will be forced to serve a longer portion of whatever sentence he receives.

“In the federal system, you do not get as much credit for time that you serve so you serve more of your sentence,” Emily told The Ashley.

“Instead of serving, say, 50 percent [of the sentence like with state sentences] you serve 80 percent,’ she explained.

Josh Duggar at a Game
Photo via Instagram

"So the sentences tend to look lower in federal court, but you’re actually serving more time.”

So the good news is, Josh could wind up being sentenced to 20 years in prison, and he would actually have to serve the majority of that time.

The bad news is, there’s a chance that Josh could be back out on the streets in a scant four years.

Josh Duggar Close Up
Photo via Instagram

In moments such as this, we’re often told to trust that the system works.

But that’s cold comfort in cases where the system has already enabled Josh’s crimes and failed his victims so many times.