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By now, you’ve likely heard the news that Counting On cast member Joy-Anna Duggar is pregnant with her first child.

You may have also heard about the controversy surrounding Joy’s conception date relative to her late May wedding.

Austin with Joy
Photo via TLC

According to her family, Joy got pregnant during her honeymoon, just days after she married Austin Forsyth.

But fans of the Duggars have come up with a timeline of their own, spurred by a number of different factors.

It’s widely believed that Joy-Anna’s was a shotgun wedding and that she and Austin actually conceived before they said "I do."

Obviously, this would create problems for her family more than most families, as it flies in the face of all that they stand for.

The Duggars, after all, are almost as famous for their belief in premarital abstinence as for their love of procreation.

So Joy is sticking to her official story:

Joy-Anna's Baby Bump
Photo via Instagram

She continues to claim that she got pregnant in late May or early June, shortly after tying the knot in the duo’s native Arkansas.

And fans continue to insist that photos like the one above, showing her substantial baby bump, are evidence that Joy is lying.

Joy and Austin posted this image to honor America’s service members on Veteran’s Day. They captioned the picture:

“We are so thankful for the men and women who have served to defend our freedom! Grateful we got to spend the day with my grandfather who is a Army veteran."

"Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord; and the people whom he hath chosen for his own inheritance. (Psalm 33:12)”

Not surprisingly, however, their Instagram followers were less concerned with the vet in the photo than with Joy-Anna’s bump.

Joy-Anna Duggar Pregnancy Image
Photo via Facebook

Several doctors (who have not personally treated the mom-to-be) have analyzed her photos and come to the unofficial conclusion:

They weren’t there in the bedroom to see it happen, but it sure looks as though Joy-Anna got pregnant before marriage.

So the consensus amongst professionals seems to be that Joy is probably about a month further along than she claims.

Of course, fans have been offering their own not-so-professional opinion for months, and it seems there are very few who buy Joy’s version.

Some Duggar obsessives, however, are quick to point out that every pregnancy is different, and it’s impossible to tell much from a photo.

How would this prove when Joy conceived?

Joy-Anna Duggar Baby Bump Photo
Photo via Instagram

Commented one fan on the pictures above: "I’m 17 weeks along and look like I’m about 6 months along."

"People need to shut their mouths and realize that every person’s body handles pregnancy differently."

"People need to leave it alone. Love you Joy and Austin congratulations," wrote another, echoing that sentiment.

Folks are not wrong in their argument.

It’s silly to try and pinpoint an exact date of conception based on a photo, or series of photos, and act like it’s definitive.

Frankly, while it’s admittedly intriguing to speculate about, we would never draw such conclusions based on a few pics.

However, you can’t ignore this:

The other evidence that Joy and Austin broke her family’s courtship rules from the get-go has piled up for about a year.

That’s what has us convinced – or at least very curious and skeptical that the couple might be trying to pull a fast one.

Given the hypocrisy surrounding Duggar scandals of the past, there’s no way that wouldn’t be a big story, either.

As always, you can watch Counting On online for more from the family … at least until it gets canceled this week.

Just a prediction.