2043 Census Projection: Minority-Majority America

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A 2043 census projection estimates that white Americans will be the minority at that time, reflecting the dramatic demographic shifts in the U.S. population.

The Census Bureau's newly released population projections predict that this will occur two years after the total population exceeds 400 million people.

Census Projection

This highly symbolic shift to a "majority-minority" nation is due to the huge growth of the U.S. Hispanic population while the white population will decrease.

Not just as a percentage of the nation, but in total numbers.

According to the Census predictions, there will be 19 million fewer whites in 2060 than today, based on the age of the population and projected rates of reproduction.

This demographic view of the country five decades from now can be misleading, however, due to the way race and ethnicity are reported to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Because Hispanic origin is reported independently of one's race, there will be an increasingly large number of people who fall into multiple categories.

When one looks at predictions for the white and black population including those who count themselves as Hispanic or biracial, the picture looks very different:

This also assumes that recent trends, the Census definition of race and ethnicity, and the cultural definition of race and ethnicity, remain unchanged through 2060.

From a political standpoint, this would appear to benefit the minority-heavy Democratic party, though voting coalitions are an extremely fluid thing.

The bloc of voters who supported President Obama in 2012 might not back another Democrat in 2016, let alone 2060, depending on numerous variables.

Still, Republicans might want to retool their message a bit on a national scale and not brag about their performance among white voters going forward.

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