Okay, lets just get to the bottom of these Sarah Palin baby scandal rumors that are claiming Sarah’s daughter Bristol Palin is actually the real mother of her fifth child.
The Sarah Palin babygate rumors which have been circulating for months picked up speed on Friday when the Daily Kos posted a blog entry claiming the Alaska governor faked her pregnancy to cover up daughter Bristol’s teen pregnancy.
First of all, Sarah’s infant son Trig has Down Syndrome. The incidence of Down Syndrome is estimated at 1 per 800 births, or 0.12%, although these statistics are heavily influenced by the age of the mother. The odds of a woman under 30 having a baby with Down Syndrome are less than 1 in 1,000, and a 17-year-old only has a 1 in 1654 chance. The odds increase to 1 in 25 for a 45-year-old woman (Sarah is 44).
Also, although the odds may increase on Wysteria Lane, what are the real odds of a mother faking a pregnancy to cover up a daughter’s teen pregnancy? When you couple that with the fact that Trig has Downs, the odds get even smaller.
The “evidence” people are using to prove the Sarah Palin babygate theory are:
1. Sarah wasn’t sporting much of a baby bump during her pregnancy.
2. Photos of Bristol appear to show a baby bump.
3. Sarah didn’t announced her pregnancy until her seventh month.
4. Sarah flew from Texas back to Alaska to have the baby after her water broke.
5. Bristol Palin was out of school with mono for five months during her mom’s pregnancy.
Although these things make you go hmmm, it is unlikely Sarah is actually baby Trig’s grandmother. Flying from Texas to Alaska after her water broke may show poor judgment, however it isn’t very convincing as evidence of a cover up. If it was actually Bristol who went into labor while Sarah was in Texas, the former Miss Alaska contestant could have easily flown back and said her water broke during or after the flight.
Prior to being selected as John McCain‘s running mate, the McCain campaign would have vetted Palin to uncover any negative information. Since rumors of the baby scandal started four months ago, it would be an extremely costly mistake to have overlooked it.
UPDATE: DKos is now eating crow. Wake Up America offers further evidence that this story is absolute bunk. Can we now put this ridiculous rumor to rest please?
LATEST UPDATE: Bristol Palin is Pregnant: Sarah Palin Issues Statement