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Lindsay Lohan’s lawyer is expected to enter a no-contest plea on her behalf this week to a misdemeanor theft charge, but will the star actually end up in jail?

The answer to that likely hinges on probation officials’ recommendations.

Probation officers will prepare a sentencing report recommending that Lohan either serve time in a county jail or serve the sentence under home confinement.

There, she would be reunited with her old friend the ankle monitor.

A judge has the power to order no electronic monitoring, but the reality is that either way, she’ll likely serve far less than the 120 days she was sentenced to.

The actress scored a win last month when L.A. County Superior Court Judge Stephanie Sautner reduced a felony grand theft charge to a misdemeanor.

Also a big example of winning? L.A. County Deputy D.A. Danette Meyers, who sought jail time for Lohan, handed the case over to the L.A. city attorney.

Sautner sentenced Lindsay to 120 days in jail for violating her 2007 DUI probation by allegedly ganking a necklace. Lohan has appealed and is free on bail.

She will NOT be given additional jail time in conjunction with her plea of no contest to the actual theft charge. But how much time will she actually do?

Sources familiar with the case said any sentence from the misdemeanor conviction would probably run concurrently with the probation sentence.

Sautner ordered Lohan to serve 480 hours of community service at the Downtown Women’s Center and janitorial duties at the coroner’s department.

Steve Whitmore, a Sheriff’s Department spokesman, said a 120-day sentence would probably be reduced to about 71 days for good behavior.

Given jail overcrowding, actual time served would be closer to 14 days. Female inmates for nonviolent crimes often serve about 20% of their time.

Ultimately, however, Sautner would have the final say and could order the actress to serve a certain number of real days in jail, sources say.

The theft trial is scheduled to begin June 3. A pretrial hearing is slated for Wednesday. What do you think? Is the 120-day sentence too much?