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1. ed Says:
   March 4th, 2009 5:29 PM
   

   YEAR 2011: 2011 “DEEP-RECESSION-DEPRESSION” ECONOMICS, “DRD”, “DRD 2011”.
   
   
   
   The year 2011 will be the answer to what we are asking ourselves today: “What is going to happen to the economy…?”, and it is already too late to try to find alternative answers, as we are on an incorrigible route towards the coming 2011 worldwide economic disaster.
   
   
   The coming devastating recession of 2011, a combination of the failures of the housing and mortgage industries and the future total collapse of the insurance industry, will primarily result in the total flattening of the values of all mutual funds, even those invested in the military economy. Mutual funds have over time created a fragile artificial structure of cross-investments and repurchases, with companies secretly investing in portfolios containing their own stock in order to sustain the value of their own shares.
   
   
   The year 2011 will be ten years after the dot-com pump-and-dump depression of 2001, and that in turn was ten years after the 1991 debacle of thrifts-and-loans (which followed by 4 years the Wall Street crash of 1987, and the subsequent puncture of the Japanese balloon), which was ten years after the 1981 recession (with interest rates at 17%) that brought in the horrifying Reaganomics-trickle-down period, respectively ten years after the 1971 Vietnam fiasco and the petro-dollar-hyper-inflation following the Bretton Woods dollar-gold parity implosion, which occurred just in 1971.
   
   Even 1961 was a recession period, when the bottom was touched before the expansion of the sixties, and ten years earlier, in 1951, the dramatic recession was partially halted by the effects of the Korean war. In 1941, that dramatic recession was halted by the effects of Pearl Harbor and World War Two, and the deep depression of ten years earlier, in 1931, is still today sending its dark shadows onto the whole planet. 1921 was also a recession year, with the global economy falling very sharply.
   
   Ten years earlier, in 1911, the stock market had tumbled, precipitating the previous boom of the global economy into the very dark years that followed. And the century had actually begun with the 1901 recession. 1901-1911-1921-1931-1941-1951-1961-1971-1981-1991-2001-…2011, astonishing regularity of recurrence, unequivocally and undeniably so. Ignorance and disregard of these data are not going to protect us, not even this time.
   
   Not that ten years matter (and truly no one believes in numbers), but ten years is exactly the cycle that a capitalistic expansion can sustain before it implodes and deflates: the different, longer cycle of wars is thirty years: 1915 The Great War; 1945 Second World War; 1975 Vietnam War; 2005 Iraq War; … 2035 will probably be the large Sino-Russian war between the two imperial powers China and re-Sovietized Russia, new global forces that will have emerged after the demise of the American empire. Neo-Soviet Russia will probably prevail in 2035, as they will have more natural resources and more fresh water, and also because by then the Chinese Global Empire 2011-2035 will have outlasted itself - modern empires tend not to last more than some 20-25 years.
   
   
   The following analyses are possible hypothetical scenarios as they may unfold:
   
   
   The big victim of the coming “Deep-Recession-Depression”, “DRD”, of 2011 will be the United States of America, which will disappear from the financial map (level with Lithuania), and the remaining loser will be China, that, similarly to Japan in 1989 (leading into the 2001 “economy-stupid-Clintonomics”), will lose 30 trillion dollars in cash, dollars which will just vanish in the black hole of international foreign currency inflation and thereto total loss of dollar value, down to zero. In spite of this fantastic cash outflow, China will emerge as the sole new uncontestable Global Empire.
   
   We are already today experiencing high economic volatility, which will become extreme, and heavy central bank and federal interventions, which will become cataclysmic. Social condition are already deteriorating as we speak, with loss of jobs, loss of houses, and also loss of health due to the increasing disregard of medical needs (diabetes, autism, hyper-stress), disregard which will become endemic.
   
   The next phase of social deterioration will be the formation of large coalitions of armed gangs, forced by hunger to settle their internecine disputes, and resorting to vast mall-robberies and take-over from time to time of whole city blocks. Deterioration, arson, and sabotage of infrastructure (collapsed bridges, rail-lines, dams) and of public utility services (cut water lines, power lines, telephone lines, imploded internet services, toppled microwave towers) will become a daily occurrence, and kidnapping will become rampant, unhampered by underpaid, ineffective police forces, unable to put in place basic public safety measures.
   
   Local autonomous caucuses and committees will collect local taxation, often at roadblocks and at armed house-visits. Schools and hospitals, already inefficient and undermanned, will be occupied by wanderers and marauders, unstoppable because of their number, determination, and desperation. Gated communities will also be fortified, and will collect their own taxes, and open their own emergency stores, trying to fill even basic needs. Luxury yachts will be used for basic subsistence fishing, and gardens will be used to grow vegetables and wheat, with scarce water and poor results. The elk and deer populations will disappear, hunted down for food.
   
   As it occurred for Georgia and Ukraine at the dissolution of the Soviet era, some states, like California and Texas, in an attempt to maintain higher living standards, will break away from the centralized regime, and their secessions will be accompanied by the strengthening of state borders, and by the establishment of separate international political relations and military alliances.
   
   
   More regarding the “Deep-Recession-Depression”, “DRD”, of 2011:
   
   
   The “Deep-Recession-Depression”, “DRD”, of 2011 will be larger than any preceding recession, because of its global dimensions, fed also by environmental deterioration and by shortened supply of potable water and affordable gasoline: all energy will be in short supply, and so will commodities and chemicals, practically non-existent. Although demand will remain high, high prices and failing supply will lead to colossal shortages of unprecedented proportions. Rice and flour are already in short supply in the USA, shops are rationing food sales, and wise concerned people are hoarding up huge quantities of staple products.
   
   Already now the index of American private domestic investment as a percentage of U.S. national gross domestic product is falling, and will keep falling (this was the characteristic of the 1991 recession, down to 11 %, and of the 2001 recession, down to 15%). The index is currently at 16%, and is descending, and in 2011 it might even crash down to values close to 0%: it is indeed true, who would want to invest in the American failing economy?
   
   An additional negative factor is contributed by the National Census, which occurs every ten years, in 1990, and then in 2000, contributing negatively to the recessions of 1991 and 2001, respectively: the Census forces many “submerged” businesses to go temporarily underground, and causes many “undocumented” entrepreneurs and workers to temporarily leave the country, creating a considerable disruption to the economy. Also the planned Census of 2010 will significantly accentuate the coming disaster of 2011.
   
   In addition to the Census, another ghost that is haunting the USA economy is the failure to implement the metric system. The large corporate monopolies in North America have repeatedly sabotaged the introduction of the logical metric system for the only purpose of keeping smaller international manufacturers out of the market. As a result, the large corporations for many years have succeeded maintaining their production and distributions privileges, but even them now are getting harmed by insularity and misadaptation, both on the import-side and on the export-side. Nobody wants USA inches, pounds, and gallons, oblique residuals of medievalism. A resurrection of the USA economy will require the implementation of the metric system without any further manipulative delays (and the downtime of 2011 would be a good time to do it).
   
   
   
   
   The counter-measures are vague, but the countdown is clear: … 2008 … 2009 … 2010 … 2011 !!! ……….
   
   “Stimulus-packages” corresponding to just one percent of the gross domestic product obviously does not generate any changes in trends. Similarly, cuts in gasoline taxes would have no impact at all.
   
   
   
   
   
   You are welcome with comments, questions, and suggestions.
   
   
   
   equalityanddignity@yahoo.com
   
   
   
   
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   THE 2011 “DEEP-RECESSION-DEPRESSION”, “DRD”
   
   
   … and then came 2011 ……….
   
   
   The deep bottom will be reached on November 11, 2011, perhaps at 11:11 AM !?!
   11/11/2011: some call it “the-triple-chicken-feet-day” 11/11/11.
   Apparently some countries are going to try to remove this nefarious date from their calendars, and some superstitious groups have already started praying to supernatural forces in the hope of obtaining some protection from the upcoming 2011 abominable calamities.
   Time will be counted restarting from 2011, and the new meaning of AD will be “After the Depression”! Year 2 and year 3 ADRD will show some signs of recovery, but there will still be hard times ahead in year 4 and year 5 ADRD, with a new weakening in year 10 ADRD.
   And the Sino-Russian conflagration will probably be around year 25 ADRD.
   
   
   
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   Where will you be in 2011?
   
   
   
   
   2011
   
   
   
   
   
   
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   “DRD” 2011