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Just four couples remain, and just one episode tonight before the 10th season finale and presentation of the cherished Mirror Ball trophy next week.

It’s crunch time on Dancing with the Stars. Below, we break down the four pairs left standing and handicap their odds of bringing home the glory …

Chad Ochocinco & Cheryl Burke
Why they’ll win: Because #85 doesn’t back down from any challenge, and he and Cheryl have formed one of the best partnerships in recent years. They’ve been consistent and significantly better than most of the field so far.
Why they won’t: They get 7s and 8s. Nicole and Evan get 9s and 10s. If Chad and Cheryl advanced to the finals this week, it would be a surprise.
Odds: 25-1

Erin Andrews & Maksim Chmerkovskiy
Why they’ll win: Fan support. Chemistry. Regardless of whether Maksim Chmerkovskiy is seeing Erin Andrews nude, there is heat on the dance floor. Not just as gimmicks, either. Erin has thrived in Maks’ challenging routines.
Why they won’t: You need to be brilliant, not just very good; Judges dock points for their sexy routines; Good looks could also work against them.
Odds: 12-1

Evan Lysacek & Anna Trebunskaya
Why they’ll win: They put up one of two perfect scores this season, and he’s Nicole’s top competitor in terms of technical proficiency, skill and agility. If he has a great week, and/or her fans don’t vote en masse, he could pull an upset.
Why they won’t: Likely needs a 30. That’s a tall order. Have had more slip-ups and shown more flaws, albeit relatively few, than Nicole and Derek.
Odds: 4-1

Nicole Scherzinger & Derek Hough
Why they’ll win: She’s the most talented, already kind of a professional dancer and a perfectionist. The ladies love Derek, and don’t dislike the Pussycat Doll.
Why they won’t: No reason.
Odds: 6:5

Who do you want to win Dancing with the Stars?